Data confusion aside, the vinyl trend is still going strong.
Tracking vinyl sales seems like a fairly straightforward activity, free of drama and controversy. Surprisingly, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
Case in point: Billboard has removed its vinyl sales figures from its website. This came after widespread criticism over their report claiming a 33.3% drop in year-over-year sales for 2024.
Turns out, vinyl sales are actually up.
Controversial Vinyl Sales Data and Industry Response
The issue began when Billboard’s report showed vinyl sales dropping from 34.9 million units in 2023 to 23.3 million units in 2024.
This sharp decline surprised many, given the format’s steady growth in recent years.
However, the Vinyl Alliance, which represents various players in the vinyl industry, quickly criticized the report. They called it a “false narrative,” pointing to the problems with Luminate’s new sales tracking methods.
Since Billboard uses Luminate’s numbers for its charts, this means Billboard’s report wasn’t correct either.
Billboard actually reported these changes and what they meant for their charts in past articles. But, they still published the declining statistics without adjustments or any disclaimers.
This led to false speculations among users and vinyl fans about the current status of the vinyl revival.
Making things more confusing, the RIAA mid-year figures for 2024 showed that vinyl sales grew by 10.7% in the first half of the year. This huge difference between Luminate’s numbers and other industry reports created more questions.
Independent retailers, whose sales make up a large portion of the vinyl market, were particularly vocal about the issues.
The Vinyl Record Manufacturing Association (VRMA), for instance, argued that the data didn’t accurately reflect what was happening in local record stores across the country.
Instead, they referred to the Indie Sales Chart as a more reliable source. This is because this chart was made specifically to track point-of-sale data from independent retailers.
In response to the controversy, Luminate later clarified that vinyl sales are actually up 6.2%, contradicting the earlier report of a 33.3% drop.
Yet, even these updated numbers don’t tell the whole story, as they still don’t include complete sales data from independent stores from 2023-2024.
Luminate’s Changes to Sales Tracking
The problem centers on the changes Luminate made at the start of 2024.
Before this year, the company used a sampling method to estimate vinyl sales. They took data from a select group of independent retailers and used it to represent the broader market.
But, they changed it to be more accurate by tracking actual sales reports from stores instead.
While this sounds good in theory, the change created real problems for small record stores.
The new system requires stores to format and submit their sales data in specific ways to feed into Luminate’s database. For many independent retailers, this means extra work they’re not equipped to handle, both in terms of technical expertise and staff time.
As such, the impact has been significant.
Many independent stores found themselves unable or unwilling to deal with the new requirements, leading to a sharp drop in reported sales.
This isn’t just a bookkeeping issue. It affects everyone in the independent music industry. When sales from independent stores aren’t counted, it becomes harder for smaller artists and labels to show their true market presence.
Matador Records President Patrick Amory, also raised concerns regarding the matter in an email.
In response to these challenges, many independent stores found a solution with StreetPulse, which makes reporting sales data easier. However, this has split how vinyl sales are tracked across the industry.
Billboard’s Silent Retraction
After weeks of backlash, Billboard quietly removed its disputed vinyl sales data from its website.
“While the new modeled methodology more accurately represents the independent retail market, there is not available comparable historical data to provide an accurate year-over-year trend regarding physical sales, including vinyl.”
In other words, they couldn’t reliably compare this year’s sales to last year’s because they were measuring things differently. So, they just removed them entirely.
However, concerns remain over how these changes could affect independent artists and the industry in the long run.
The vinyl industry now faces important questions about how to move forward.
Luminate’s attempt to make sales tracking more accurate was well-intentioned. But, the execution has revealed deep gaps between how major retailers and independent stores operate.
Finding a solution that works for everyone, from major chains to small record shops, will be crucial for maintaining vinyl’s revival and making sure the format continues to support all kinds of music, independent or not.